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The weekly small experiment · 2026-W41 · 6 October 2026

The receipt
never arrived.

That does not mean the work did not happen.

Eighteen parcels. An unreliable channel. Four workers with the same budget, each in a separate copy of the world. You can see what arrived. They can only see the receipts. Before playing, predict which rule leaves the fewest missed jobs and duplicate deliveries.

Loading the seeded model…

Each square is one job: empty = not delivered · green = delivered once · rust / × = repeated effect · underline = receipt received.

01 / fixed rule

Send once

One attempt. Then live with the uncertainty.

02 / fixed rule

Retry oldest

Try again when confirmation takes too long.

03 / fixed rule

Random retry

Same rules, a random eligible job.

04 / fixed rule

Retry + key

Remember each effect. Pay for the record.

80 dispatch ticks, then all in-flight messages drain. Every attempt costs one credit; a keyed attempt costs two, even if lost or suppressed. The panels show evaluator truth. The workers cannot read it.

Try this first

Let the receiver forget.

Press Show outcome. Keep the seed, then change Key retention to 8 ticks. An old key expires; its delivery does not disappear. A late retry can now produce a second effect. Return retention to Whole run, then reduce Credits to 24. Bookkeeping protects uniqueness, but this model charges for it.

Delivered. Confirmed. Different numbers.

A missing receipt could mean the request vanished, the reply is slow, or the work finished and the reply vanished. Send once accepts the uncertainty. Retry oldest tries fresh jobs first, then the oldest unconfirmed job whose timeout has elapsed. Random retry uses the same eligibility rule with random selection. None learns.

Retry + key uses the same dispatcher as Retry oldest. Its receiver atomically stores a unique job key with the effect, then suppresses repeats while that key survives. This atomicity is an assumption, not a feature that arbitrary external services automatically provide.

No rule gets a free lunch.

All 64 default seeds · means out of 18 distinct jobs
RuleDeliveredDuplicatesConfirmed
Send once14.01608.375
Retry oldest1813.84417.844
Random retry1814.17217.844
Retry + key17.328013.797

Retained keys eliminate duplicate effects here, but the extra credit per attempt leaves some work undelivered. At a 24-credit ceiling, the keyed rule averages 9.5 delivered; oldest retry averages 15.984. At 100 credits, both deliver all 18 in every sampled default-channel world.

Eight-tick key retention produces 5.281 duplicate effects on average. Even a loss-free channel gives oldest retry 2.484 duplicates: a reply can take 12 ticks to return, longer than the 8-tick timeout. Try a longer timeout before deciding that every silence is a failure.

What you can change

Seed and credits
The seed reproduces a world; credits cap all attempts. Keyed requests consume two each, other requests one. Unused credits are not spent automatically.
Loss and delay
Request loss happens before delivery. Receipt loss happens after arrival, including a suppressed repeat. Delay is uniformly 1 to the selected maximum on each leg.
Retry after
Ticks since the last send before that unconfirmed job becomes eligible. New jobs have priority. Long timeouts can leave work unresolved at the deadline.
Key retention and forgetting
Retention starts when the first effect is recorded; suppressing a repeat does not refresh it. Forget keys clears the receiver ledger at tick 40, preserving every effect and all sender memory. Both controls affect only the keyed receiver.

Where this experiment stops

All rules see only local send history and acknowledgements, with matched world draws per job and attempt. They share a dispatch horizon and credit ceiling, not equal attempts or measured compute. Processing at the receiver is instantaneous; there is no congestion, malicious sender, key collision, changing payload or real service integration.

All 640 seeded worlds and 2,560 policy outcomes are retained across ten predeclared settings, including total request loss, total receipt loss, short retention and ledger reset. These are invented rules, not measurements of a provider, organism, LLM or trading system. There is no composite score hiding the tradeoff.

Background: the AWS Builders’ Library on safe retries explains request identifiers and retry semantics. This model is an original teaching simplification.

Method & parameter guide ↓Source package ↓All batch results ↓Read the model

Previously: One Door, Many Hands · Explore the eight small worlds.