{ "experiment": "Signal or Silence", "version": "1.0.0", "frozenAt": "2026-10-21", "seeds": { "first": 1, "last": 64, "count": 64 }, "modelSha256": "444f8d9f62b04f7a85f4252f46070bccd6da00d10f8ac4f07e1453a334db4f5a", "scenarioCount": 10, "worlds": 640, "policyOutcomes": 1920, "batches": [ { "id": "default", "description": "Delay burst, 12% loss and a 40-tick outage", "config": { "steps": 240, "heartbeatEvery": 4, "dropRate": 12, "baseDelay": 2, "burstStart": 72, "burstEnd": 112, "burstDelay": 14, "outageStart": 140, "outageLength": 40, "fixedTimeout": 10, "unknownAfter": 10, "downAfter": 26, "adaptiveMin": 8, "adaptiveMax": 30 }, "worlds": 64, "policyOutcomes": 192, "summary": { "fixed": { "label": "Fixed timeout", "usefulRouting": { "mean": 193.15625, "min": 181, "max": 198, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyFalseDown": { "mean": 4.515625, "min": 1, "max": 16, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnknown": { "mean": 2.328125, "min": 1, "max": 10, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnavailability": { "mean": 6.84375, "min": 2, "max": 19, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnsafeUp": { "mean": 7.84375, "min": 0, "max": 9, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnknown": { "mean": 0, "min": 0, "max": 0, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "detectionDelay": { "mean": 7.84375, "min": 0, "max": 9, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "recoveryDelay": { "mean": 2.046875, "min": 1, "max": 6, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "stateChanges": { "mean": 5.125, "min": 3, "max": 11, "valid": 64, "total": 64 } }, "adaptive": { "label": "Adaptive timeout", "usefulRouting": { "mean": 193.921875, "min": 183, "max": 198, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyFalseDown": { "mean": 3.75, "min": 1, "max": 16, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnknown": { "mean": 2.328125, "min": 1, "max": 10, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnavailability": { "mean": 6.078125, "min": 2, "max": 17, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnsafeUp": { "mean": 9.625, "min": 1, "max": 19, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnknown": { "mean": 0, "min": 0, "max": 0, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "detectionDelay": { "mean": 9.625, "min": 1, "max": 19, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "recoveryDelay": { "mean": 2.046875, "min": 1, "max": 6, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "stateChanges": { "mean": 4.0625, "min": 3, "max": 7, "valid": 64, "total": 64 } }, "uncertain": { "label": "Keep UNKNOWN", "usefulRouting": { "mean": 193.15625, "min": 181, "max": 198, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyFalseDown": { "mean": 2.046875, "min": 1, "max": 6, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnknown": { "mean": 4.796875, "min": 1, "max": 17, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnavailability": { "mean": 6.84375, "min": 2, "max": 19, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnsafeUp": { "mean": 7.84375, "min": 0, "max": 9, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnknown": { "mean": 16, "min": 16, "max": 16, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "detectionDelay": { "mean": 23.84375, "min": 16, "max": 25, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "recoveryDelay": { "mean": 2.046875, "min": 1, "max": 6, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "stateChanges": { "mean": 6.125, "min": 4, "max": 12, "valid": 64, "total": 64 } } }, "outcomes": [ { "seed": 1, "policy": "fixed", "usefulRouting": 190, "healthyFalseDown": 8, "healthyUnknown": 2, "outageUnsafeUp": 9, "outageUnknown": 0, "stateChanges": 7, "healthyUnavailability": 10, "detectionDelay": 9, "recoveryDelay": 6, "messagesSeen": 42 }, { "seed": 1, "policy": "adaptive", "usefulRouting": 189, "healthyFalseDown": 9, "healthyUnknown": 2, "outageUnsafeUp": 13, "outageUnknown": 0, "stateChanges": 5, "healthyUnavailability": 11, "detectionDelay": 13, "recoveryDelay": 6, "messagesSeen": 42 }, { "seed": 1, "policy": "uncertain", "usefulRouting": 190, "healthyFalseDown": 6, "healthyUnknown": 4, "outageUnsafeUp": 9, "outageUnknown": 16, "stateChanges": 8, "healthyUnavailability": 10, "detectionDelay": 25, "recoveryDelay": 6, "messagesSeen": 42 }, { "seed": 2, "policy": "fixed", "usefulRouting": 194, "healthyFalseDown": 4, "healthyUnknown": 2, "outageUnsafeUp": 4, "outageUnknown": 0, "stateChanges": 5, "healthyUnavailability": 6, "detectionDelay": 4, "recoveryDelay": 2, "messagesSeen": 45 }, { "seed": 2, "policy": "adaptive", "usefulRouting": 196, "healthyFalseDown": 2, "healthyUnknown": 2, "outageUnsafeUp": 4, "outageUnknown": 0, "stateChanges": 3, "healthyUnavailability": 4, "detectionDelay": 4, "recoveryDelay": 2, "messagesSeen": 45 }, { "seed": 2, "policy": "uncertain", "usefulRouting": 194, "healthyFalseDown": 2, "healthyUnknown": 4, "outageUnsafeUp": 4, "outageUnknown": 16, "stateChanges": 6, "healthyUnavailability": 6, "detectionDelay": 20, "recoveryDelay": 2, "messagesSeen": 45 }, { "seed": 3, "policy": "fixed", "usefulRouting": 190, "healthyFalseDown": 8, "healthyUnknown": 2, "outageUnsafeUp": 9, "outageUnknown": 0, "stateChanges": 7, "healthyUnavailability": 10, "detectionDelay": 9, "recoveryDelay": 6, "messagesSeen": 41 }, { "seed": 3, "policy": "adaptive", 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"healthyUnknown": 5, "outageUnsafeUp": 5, "outageUnknown": 16, "stateChanges": 4, "healthyUnavailability": 6, "detectionDelay": 21, "recoveryDelay": 1, "messagesSeen": 40 } ] }, { "id": "clean-network", "description": "No loss, no delay burst", "config": { "steps": 240, "heartbeatEvery": 4, "dropRate": 0, "baseDelay": 2, "burstStart": 72, "burstEnd": 112, "burstDelay": 2, "outageStart": 140, "outageLength": 40, "fixedTimeout": 10, "unknownAfter": 10, "downAfter": 26, "adaptiveMin": 8, "adaptiveMax": 30 }, "worlds": 64, "policyOutcomes": 192, "summary": { "fixed": { "label": "Fixed timeout", "usefulRouting": { "mean": 197.140625, "min": 196, "max": 198, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyFalseDown": { "mean": 1.375, "min": 1, "max": 2, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnknown": { "mean": 1.484375, "min": 1, "max": 2, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnavailability": { "mean": 2.859375, "min": 2, "max": 4, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnsafeUp": { "mean": 8.46875, "min": 8, 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"total": 64 }, "recoveryDelay": { "mean": 1.375, "min": 1, "max": 2, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "stateChanges": { "mean": 3, "min": 3, "max": 3, "valid": 64, "total": 64 } }, "uncertain": { "label": "Keep UNKNOWN", "usefulRouting": { "mean": 197.140625, "min": 196, "max": 198, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyFalseDown": { "mean": 1.375, "min": 1, "max": 2, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnknown": { "mean": 1.484375, "min": 1, "max": 2, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnavailability": { "mean": 2.859375, "min": 2, "max": 4, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnsafeUp": { "mean": 8.46875, "min": 8, "max": 9, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnknown": { "mean": 16, "min": 16, "max": 16, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "detectionDelay": { "mean": 24.46875, "min": 24, "max": 25, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "recoveryDelay": { "mean": 1.375, "min": 1, "max": 2, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "stateChanges": { "mean": 4, "min": 4, "max": 4, "valid": 64, "total": 64 } } }, "outcomes": 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"healthyUnavailability": 12, "detectionDelay": 10, "recoveryDelay": 6, "messagesSeen": 36 }, { "seed": 62, "policy": "uncertain", "usefulRouting": 170, "healthyFalseDown": 6, "healthyUnknown": 24, "outageUnsafeUp": 9, "outageUnknown": 16, "stateChanges": 10, "healthyUnavailability": 30, "detectionDelay": 25, "recoveryDelay": 6, "messagesSeen": 36 }, { "seed": 63, "policy": "fixed", "usefulRouting": 186, "healthyFalseDown": 8, "healthyUnknown": 6, "outageUnsafeUp": 8, "outageUnknown": 0, "stateChanges": 7, "healthyUnavailability": 14, "detectionDelay": 8, "recoveryDelay": 1, "messagesSeen": 40 }, { "seed": 63, "policy": "adaptive", "usefulRouting": 192, "healthyFalseDown": 2, "healthyUnknown": 6, "outageUnsafeUp": 8, "outageUnknown": 0, "stateChanges": 5, "healthyUnavailability": 8, "detectionDelay": 8, "recoveryDelay": 1, "messagesSeen": 40 }, { "seed": 63, "policy": "uncertain", "usefulRouting": 186, "healthyFalseDown": 1, "healthyUnknown": 13, "outageUnsafeUp": 8, "outageUnknown": 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"valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "stateChanges": { "mean": 6, "min": 3, "max": 9, "valid": 64, "total": 64 } }, "adaptive": { "label": "Adaptive timeout", "usefulRouting": { "mean": 189.765625, "min": 169, "max": 198, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyFalseDown": { "mean": 7.90625, "min": 1, "max": 21, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnknown": { "mean": 2.328125, "min": 1, "max": 10, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnavailability": { "mean": 10.234375, "min": 2, "max": 31, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnsafeUp": { "mean": 9.640625, "min": 2, "max": 15, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnknown": { "mean": 0, "min": 0, "max": 0, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "detectionDelay": { "mean": 9.640625, "min": 2, "max": 15, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "recoveryDelay": { "mean": 2.046875, "min": 1, "max": 6, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "stateChanges": { "mean": 4.8125, "min": 3, "max": 7, "valid": 64, "total": 64 } }, "uncertain": { "label": "Keep UNKNOWN", "usefulRouting": { "mean": 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47 } ] }, { "id": "overlap", "description": "Delay burst overlaps the true outage", "config": { "steps": 240, "heartbeatEvery": 4, "dropRate": 12, "baseDelay": 2, "burstStart": 120, "burstEnd": 180, "burstDelay": 14, "outageStart": 140, "outageLength": 40, "fixedTimeout": 10, "unknownAfter": 10, "downAfter": 26, "adaptiveMin": 8, "adaptiveMax": 30 }, "worlds": 64, "policyOutcomes": 192, "summary": { "fixed": { "label": "Fixed timeout", "usefulRouting": { "mean": 193.734375, "min": 181, "max": 198, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyFalseDown": { "mean": 3.9375, "min": 1, "max": 17, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnknown": { "mean": 2.328125, "min": 1, "max": 10, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "healthyUnavailability": { "mean": 6.265625, "min": 2, "max": 19, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnsafeUp": { "mean": 13.921875, "min": 2, "max": 21, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "outageUnknown": { "mean": 0, "min": 0, "max": 0, "valid": 64, "total": 64 }, "detectionDelay": { "mean": 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